According to Morgan Stanley, over 1,300 billion dollars can be saved annually in the US by the prevalence of self-driving cars – autonomous vehicles. 500 billion comes from productivity savings (assuming we all work during our commute), another 500 billion – give or take – from accident avoidance, and 160 billion in fuel savings. Check out the full feature in the Quattroruote section of this issue.
Now, I can’t compute that much Math – so I won’t attempt to disprove any of those numbers, suffice to say that the consultants working on this project are likely to be located in one of the States where marijuana has recently been legalized (just a hunch)! At any rate, there’s no getting away from autonomous vehicles – they will continue to play a more active role in the future of transportation, no question. Even the likes of Nico Rosberg have come to terms with this reality – and he makes a living from the act of driving.
Clearly there are lot of benefits to be had, but there are a lot of unanswered questions as well. I, for one, am quite happy to manually wield my 22-year-old BMW – free of all electronic aids – while everyone else is comfortably ensconced in their automated pods. It’s just that I’m not so sure about these projections.
Take, for instance, another feature in this issue that makes for interesting reading, Hydrogen Strikes Again. As the name suggests, it’s about fuel cell technology and the re-emergence of hydrogen as a viable fuel for the future. It makes quite a strong, and reasonable, case for the fuel – but the most interesting part of this piece is a timeline that tracks the progress of this technology all the way from the late 1700’s. This timeline is peppered with projections made by industry leaders over the years – none of which have come to fruition. In 2007, for instance, the head of Daimler-Chrysler Advanced Technologies predicted that 2012 would see as many fuel cell cars sold as there were hybrids hitting the streets at the time. In 2008, Dieter Zetsche predicted that the B-Class F-Cell would sell 100,000 units a year by 2014. The head of Mazda, meanwhile, said that fuel cell cars would be mainstream by 2020. Renault even predicted that it would begin producing fuel cell cars in India by 2010.
In light of the above, you’ll forgive me for being a little skeptical about projections that claim to be the gospel truth. I have my own verse to preach though, and it’s really very simple – just pay attention when you’re behind the wheel! Remember that driving is a privilege, an art form – something to be both respected and enjoyed. So the next time you get behind the wheel, immerse yourself in the experience a little bit – appreciate the engineering that’s gone into whatever device happens to be propelling you at the time. You’ll be safer, more productive, and happier all at the same time – and you’ll be able to achieve this without a network of microchips having to think on your behalf.
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