Raikkonen, Alonso, and Vettel completed the podium of the season opening 2013 Australian Grand Prix, followed by Massa, Hamilton, Webber, Sutil, Di Resta, Button and Grosjean. Usual suspects that Formula 1 fans would have expected after following pre-season testing. You probably differed about the order, and had a Sauber in the mix, but surely didn’t have a Marussia or Caterham on your list of teams that would be in the top five.
With the regulations remaining constant from last year, the main factors affecting overall performance for teams and drivers will be the new compound (read: more degrading) Pirelli tyres, and, of course, the weather. While Pirelli tyres affect one and all equally, there are voices (famous ones at that) in the paddock who have expressed their discontent at the sport being over-dependent on tyres. I mean it isn’t a ‘World Tyre Championship’ that teams are fighting for, so there is some merit in that argument. Raikkonen’s win in Australia, for instance, can be attributed to tyre management, strategy and pace – in that order!
But there’s little that anyone (teams, drivers and fans included) can do to win the ‘tyre argument,’ and this is something that we’ll have to live with for now. So, I expect the Pirellis to play a large role in the outcome of the 2013 World Championship. And given what we’ve seen in Melbourne, I’m certain it’ll be a hard fought one.
The other element that will affect this years Championship will indeed be the 2014 World Championship. With a sweeping change in regulations in place for next year, teams will have their design and development offices working overtime on both the 2013 and 2014 cars in parallel. Should a team realize that their 2013 efforts are unlikely to bear the fruits they expect, I wouldn’t be surprised if they switch all their energies to 2014 – like Honda / Brawn did in 2008. Will McLaren take this route? I hope not, since we need as many teams as possible battling up ahead.
But given that sponsorship has been hard to come by (McLaren lose Vodafone at the end of the year), and keeping in mind that the outflow for participation to the FIA has increased, limited development budgets could also affect the outcome of this year’s championship – even though revenue distribution from TV contracts has increased. ‘The more money you spend, the more speed you have’ – this old racing adage still holds true for Formula 1.
Speaking of money, I also expect pay drivers to play a certain role in the Championship outcome. We saw in Australia that Alonso almost crashed into (or could’ve spun off) while lapping one of the new Caterham drivers in the closing stages of the race. Had this led to a retirement, or an unscheduled pit-stop, Alonso would have made way for Massa to be on the podium at Albert Park (which would have been ironic).
There are five rookie drivers on the grid this year, and most of them made their way into the sport thanks to the money they bring with them (via their sponsors), and not necessarily their talent. While it’s too early to judge their performance in the sport, I hope that they don’t play a large role this year. It would have been unfortunate had Vettel lost the Championship in 2012 after being knocked into a spin by Senna on the opening lap in Brazil. I mean, let the top men fight it out on track fairly to claim their prize!
And, last but not least, like in 2012, I expect the mid-field teams to be in the mix at the front of the grid. In Australia, we saw Adrian Sutil lead the race in two separate stints.
Similar is expected from his teammate, Paul Di Resta, and Sauber driver Nico Hulkenberg. And, of course, Maldonado – that is if he manages to actually keep his Williams F1 car on the track to begin with. By being in the mix, the mid-field teams not only take away much needed championship points, but also force the top teams to re-think their strategy more often mid-race. Of course, this means added entertainment and suspense for us fans.
And, on a funny note, the one driver who could also affect this year’s title challenge could be Felipe Massa. The Brazilian showed strong pace in the last few races of 2012, and in the opening race in Melbourne. Should he perform up to expectations, and should the Ferrari F138 maintain its pace, given his number two status in the team, there could well be two Ferraris for the other drivers to beat.
While I don’t see seven different drivers winning the first seven races of 2013, I am certain that competition will be tough and we’re set to have yet another Championship go down to the wire – unless of course Adrian Newey decides to outsmart everyone else yet again. Game on!
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