The month of March is one of my favourites. That the new Formula 1 season gets underway is only one of the reasons. The other being that I get to pen my predictions (bold or not, you decide) for the season ahead! And I’m buoyed by the fact that barring one, every prediction I made for last season came true.
As we all know, 2014 is unlike any of the previous seasons that modern day Formula 1 has witnessed. The revolutionary technical regulations are, by far, the toughest that the engineers have yet faced – and, luckily, they aren’t only aero related. So, making predictions is tougher than ever. And, of course, I have zero data from the first pre-season test in Jerez about form factor, reliability, or even Pirelli’s durability.
However, I see that as an opportunity to make some really fun and bold predictions. This is after I missed predicting in mid-2013 the ‘ugly’ appearance and ‘tame’ sound of the 2014 cars. The first of many would be that the cars will lap quicker (thankfully) than before. The Formula 1 paddock is getting used to the new cars, engines, ERS, etc, and once they hit their sweet spot, the cars will only end up going quicker.
The other would be to predict this year’s driver’s champion! While the regular Formula1 world champion drivers (Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Button) are easily the favourites, I think the ‘underdog’ would be Nico Rosberg. The Mercedes powertrain showed immense reliability during the Jerez test, and I would expect him to get the better of not just Hamilton, but the other 20 drivers as well. And, if not Rosberg, my money is on Button.
It would be typical to question the Vettel vs. Ricciardo, Hamilton vs. Rosberg, Raikkonen vs. Alonso, and the other teammate battles. But there’s a slight possibility of a Massa being quicker than Alonso early in the season. I expect him to do better at Williams where the pressure will be less – and the brouhaha too.
And, for the rookies, I believe that it’ll be even tougher than usual to prove their talent. The lack of testing already impacts track-time and the first few races could include ‘driving around the car’s problems’ rather than driving on the limit! Sigh! But, still, watch out for Magnussen.
While it was easy to narrow down my driver, it’s almost impossible to pin down the winning constructor. The Renault powered cars (read Red Bull) suffered from powertrain issues in Jerez, but I expect them to come good by the start of the season. However, I don’t think a Renault powered car will be the eventual winner. The fight will be between the automobile superpowers Ferrari and Mercedes, and the eventual outcome will probably be dependent on reliability and economy rather than out-and-out power. It may just be that the Ferrari duo will be able to steer the team from Maranello to the top spot, while the Mercedes drivers fight amongst each other for the drivers’ championship!
Also, I suspect that we will see a mid-field team manage to pull of a surprise win in the first half (or earlier) of the season, while others are scurrying around for reliability. Will the Lotus stop blooming after enduring the rough financial weather of the last few seasons? Will a twelfth and thirteenth team join the grid in 2015? I’m sure there’ll be much discussion on this front, but don’t believe anything until there’s a confirmation one way or the other.
And, of course, I suspect that we will see ‘donuts’ in 2014 as well. Just that this time around, they will be legal – but given the uncertainty and unpredictability of the year ahead, will they be as sweet?
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